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BestWxman
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Name: Drew
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12/14/2004
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| Tuesday, November 20, 2007
SW
Louisiana Forecast Discussion...It certainly doesn't feel like
Thanksgiving here on this Tuesday before Thanksgiving, but changes are
on the way within 24-30 hours. Quite a progressive pattern is in store
for the entire Thanksgiving weekend, with a couple of systems expected
to affect the area. I'll break them down one by one in a moment, but
first I'll discuss our short term expectations.
The official
high temperature here in Lake Charles today was a very unseasonable 80
degrees, and with a continued low-level Southerly flow and Partly to
Mostly Cloudy skies on Wednesday I expect more of the same. The main
issue first thing in the morning will once again be Fog. I expect it to
be more of a Patchy nature tonight/early Wednesday though as opposed to
widespread like we saw this morning. We have the same overall
atmospheric setup tonight as we did last night to allow for the
development of fog, but the inhibiting factor or saving grace is that
surface winds should be a bit stronger than they were last night in
response to the approaching cold front. The cold front will move
through SW Louisiana in the wee morning hours of Thanksgiving Day, and
that is when we'll see our best chance of showers and thunderstorms in
the short term. I feel that most of the day Wednesday should be dry,
but some scattered showers or a thunderstorm can't be ruled out
especially during the mid to late afternoon hours as the front draws
near.
In the overnight hours, Gulf moisture will continue
advancing Northward in advance of the front, and decent coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is expected across the area until frontal
passage early on Thursday. A few severe storms are possible ahead of
the front, but at this time I expect only an isolated severe cell
around here, with a better chance for severe weather up along the I-20
corridor. This could change, so we'll continue to monitor this
situation during the day Wednesday. Wednesday is the busiest travel day
of the year, so the timing of this system isn't good. It will turn
windy and sharply colder behind the front Thanksgiving morning.
Temperatures will be in the 48-52 range to start the day Thursday, and
they won't move a whole lot during the day as strong cold air advection
continues in the wake of the front. I expect that highs will only reach
the mid 50s at best. Skies should gradually clear during the day
Thursday, but that will be short lived. I'll discuss why in a moment.
So,
with the much colder temperatures and the wind, it will be quite a
chilly Thanksgiving. Look for the cold weather to continue through the
rest of the holiday weekend. Friday should generally be a dry day if
you have shopping plans, or perhaps heading to the LSU-Arkansas game.
You'll certainly want to bundle up with morning lows in the upper 30s
and highs in the mid 50s with skies starting out Mostly Sunny and
transitioning to Mostly Cloudy by day's end. The increase in cloud
cover will be a precursor for what's to come over the weekend. The cold
front will continue pushing into the Gulf of Mexico and become
quasi-stationary, and by Friday cyclogenesis (formation of a surface
low) is forecast to occur over Northern Mexico. This low will advance
from SW to NE across the Gulf along the frontal boundary this weekend.
This will result in the overrunning effect taking shape across the
area. That is, warm air riding up and over the cold air at the surface.
This is because warm air is more shallow than cold air. It is the
overrunning effect that gives us the majority of our rainfall during
the winter, and something that we are no stranger to around here. The
surface low is forecasted to move inland across SE Louisiana Saturday
night or early Sunday morning. This would keep us here in SW Louisiana
in the cool sector of this storm system, thus eliminating any severe
weather threat that would occur to the right of the low. If this pans
out, then folks East of the Mississippi River may be in for a
significant severe weather outbreak Sunday as the system continues
advancing off to the NE. Whether or not we get into the warm sector of
this system or not, we're going to see copious amounts of rainfall this
weekend. A significant rainfall event is possible with some areas
receiving close to 5" of rain from the onset of the event Friday night
to its departure on Sunday. The surface low is expected to be a slow
mover, thus that's why I expect widespread rainfall for the majority of
the weekend. The heaviest rainfall should occur on Sunday as the low
apprroaches the coast, and moves inland. With the rainfall, and warm
air aloft, the cold air will be trapped at the surface, so it will be
quite raw for the duration of the weekend. Temperatures may stay in the
40s all day Saturday, and only into the 50s on Sunday. The warm up
Sunday is mainly because of the approaching surface low as this is a
warm air advection process. It will certainly be a good weekend to stay
indoors and watch football or decorate your home for Christmas. If you
plan to decorate the outside of your home this weekend, as do I, then
there'll be a small window of opportunity to do so Friday or late
Sunday. This is also bad news for the McNeese playoff game Saturday
night. As of now, I feel that most of the quarterfinal matchups of the
High School football playoffs should be dry.
As fate would
have it, the system moves out of our hair Sunday evening, and
conditions drastically improve for Monday as we head back to work and
school after a nice break. The rainfall moves out and temperatures
moderate at the beginning of the work week. Traveling home on Sunday
could certainly be no picnic with the anticipated widespread rain
event, so stay tuned for more weather details later in the week before
your depart from your destination. This system is still a full 3 days
away, so some changes are bound to occur between now and the genesis of
the system. While, this 2nd system certainly looks to be the bigger
weather maker across SW Louisiana, we should get the 1st system behind
us tomorrow night/early Thursday before we focus in on the 2nd system.
If conditions warrant, I'll have another update on Wednesday to address
the prospects of severe weahter, otherwise my next update here will
come on Friday in anticipation of the weekend event. You might have
noticed that the month of November so far has been relatively dry, even
with the 1.50" rainfall we had this past weekend. We'll certainly make
up for that over the remainder of this week. This unsettled pattern is
not out of the ordinary in the 2nd half of November across South
Louisiana. In fact, this is the climatological beginning of our winter
wet season. The wet season is a bi-annual occurrence in the Bayou
State. The winter wet season is mostly a result of the aforementioned
overrunning effect or isentropic lift events, and the summer wet season
is primarly the result of our daily dose of scattered showers and
thunderstorms that is diurnally induced from May to September, along
with any tropical systems that may affect the area.
Before I
get to the forecast, I'll briefly take a look into the long range. The
progressive and wet pattern looks to continue for the rest of the month
and as we head into early December. It looks like temperatures will be
on a roller coaster ride with some unseasonable warmth and unseasonable
cold into the first week of December. Now, see the forecast below. Next
update if necessary will be Wednesday afternoon around 4 p.m. otherwise
it'll be Friday around the same time. Happy Thanksgiving and be safe if
you are traveling. DM
Current Conditions for Lake Charles, LA as of 12:00 A.M. CST
Sky Condition: Mostly Cloudy
Temp: 70° F
Dewpoint: 67° F
Humidity: 90%
Heat Index: 73° F
Wind: SE at 5 mph
Pressure: 30.00" S
Visibility: 7 miles
Tonight...Mostly Cloudy with areas of Fog. Unseasonably warm. Low 64.
SSE wind 5-10 mph.
Wednesday...Areas of Fog dissipating by 9 a.m., otherwise Mostly Cloudy
with a 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Continued unseasonably warm with a high around 80. South wind
10-15 mph.
Wednesday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Turning windy and colder after midnight. A few severe storms possible
with the main threat being strong winds. Heavy rainfall possible at times.
Lows near 50. SSE wind 10-15 mph becoming NNW and increasing
to 20-25 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 70%.
Thanksgiving Day...Mostly Cloudy, Windy, and Much Colder with a 20%
chance of lingering rain in the morning becoming Mostly Sunny during the
afternoon. Highs in the low to mid 50s. NNW winds 15-20 mph and gusty.
7 Day Outlook
7 Day Outlook Lake Charles & Vicinity
11-21-07
Wednessday
Weather: Mostly Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm w/ a chance for showers
& thunderstorms increasing throughout the day. Areas of fog before
mid-morning.
Precip: 30% day/70% night
Low: 64 High: 80
Wind: SSE 10-15
H.I.: 78-82
11-22-07
Thanksgiving
Thursday
Weather: Mostly Cloudy w/ a slight chance of rain in the morning,
becoming Mostly Sunny in the afternoon. Windy & Much Colder.
Precip: 20% AM
Low: 49 High: 53
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 40-45
11-23-07
Friday
Weather: Mostly Sunny in the morning, Increasing Clouds in the
afternoon. Continued Cold. Slight chance of rain by evening.
Precip: 20% Late PM
Low: 38 High: 52
Wind: N 10
W.C.: 30-40
11-24-07
Saturday
Weather: Rain Likely, heavy at times. Cold
Precip: 80%
Low: 45 High: 48
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 35-40
11-25-07
Sunday
Weather: Rain & T-Storms likely. Heavy rainfall possible. Continued
Cold. Rain tapering off late.
Precip: 80%
Low: 46 High: 51
Wind: NNE/E 15-20
W.C.: 35-45
11-26-07
Monday
Weather: Becoming Mostly Sunny & Warmer after a chilly start.
Precip: 0%
Low: 36 High: 58
Wind: North 10
W.C.: 30-35 A.M.
11-27-07
Tuesday
Weather: Sunny w/ the Warming trend continuing
Precip: 0%
Low: 38 High: 66
Wind: N 5-10
W.C.: 35-40 A.M.
Certainly not the best looking forecast for a holiday weekend, but at least
Thanksgiving itself should be fairly decent. It'll feel more like
Thanksgiving anyway, enough with these 80 degree days in November.
Hard to believe we're only a day away from Thanksgiving now, and the
holiday season is in full swing. The end of the year is always busy for many.
No matter how busy you are though, remember the real Reason for the
Season. Don't forget to give thanks to God for all that you have in your
life, and thank all those who serve our country. They are our real heroes.
I can't wait for Christmas myself, but between now and then I've got
something to look forward to indeed. Graduation!!! Just 24 days now! The
end of a 27 year journey is almost near. I know I'll be thanking God,
because I know I couldn't have done it without Him. Happy Thanksgiving
to all, and until next time Happy Cloud Watching and may God bless!!!
-Drew- | | |
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Monday, August 13, 2007
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...The oppressive heat across the area
will continue for at least one more day before we see any hope for some
relief. Today was the 3rd to 4th day in a row across SWLA of 100+
temperatures. Some record highs have been established in several
locales since Friday including here in Lake Charles on Saturday of 101.
While not a record on Monday, the high of 103 at Lake Charles Regional
Airport was the hottest temperature recorded in 7 years since the great
heat wave of 2000. The big ridge of high pressure responsible for the
oppressive heat will remain in control for at least one more day before
some changes begin to take shape. Even coastal areas haven't been
immuned to the triple digit heat with Galveston, TX recording a high
near 100 over the weekend. The light Northerly winds at the surface do
little to help keep it cooler at the coast (No sea breeze). The
aforementioned ridge is slowly shifting off to the NW toward the Great
Plains. So, Tuesday will once again feature high temperatures in the
lower 100s, and likely Heat Advisory conditions once again. By Wednesday a bit more surface moisture advects into
the area as winds shift from NE to SE. It is the Southeasterly wind
that will open up the Gulf of Mexico for a return of low-level moisture
and increasing humidity values. In turn, the higher humidity values
mean lower maxiumum temperatures because the air will not be as dry as
it is now underneath the ridge. The more moist air will result in less
of a diurnal temperature range since moist air doesnt heat up as fast
as dry air. In a nutshell, by Wednesday conditions should be more
representative of what we expect in mid August. Temperatures should
decrease from the low 100s to the mid 90s.
As you've most likely noticed in this incredibly hot pattern, we
haven't seen our typical scattered afternoon thunderstorms. This once
again is related to what I said in the previous paragraph about
warm/moist air and dry/hot air. The high pressure results in
suppression processes in the atmosphere. That is, any of the usual
cumulus clouds we see during the day that try to grow vertically during
peak heating hours of the day, simply are prevented from doing so do to
the limited amout of moisture in the upper levels in response to the
warm air aloft. A few isolated thunderstorms have occurred during this
heat wave each day, but this is basically due to the fact that the air
temperature in the locations where the thunderstorm generated was close
to the convective temperature, which in this case was around 105. Thank
goodness, we had a wetter pattern for the last 2 months, otherwise we'd
be talking drought conditions by now as this heat wave has lasted for
over a week now. As for rain chances as the ridge pushes away, they
will return to the forecast, but for long and what kinda areal coverage
will we see? I will defer this answer until later on in this
discussion.
While we continue to bake and wither away in the oppressive heat, the
tropics are heating up as well. This morning, Tropical Depression 4
formed in the Eastern Atlantic roughly halfway between the Lesser
Antilles and the coast of West Africa. This system is forecasted to
continue to become better organized, and become the first hurricane of
the 2007 season later this week. It should obtain tropical storm status
sometime Tuesday. It's name would be Dean. There's plenty of time to
watch this system, as it is about 10 days away from affecting the U.S.,
if it even does at all. Onr more note before moving on here, this early
in the game it is important not to get overly anxious, nervous, or
excited about a storm nearly 3,000 miles away. Models are inconsistent
to say the least on where TD 4 will wind up at this stage. For example,
one model run showed a major hurricane making landfall in Mexico and
the next had a major hurricane going up the East coast next week. It
will continue to change from run to run until the system is well
organized, and the models have a better understanding for the synoptic
set up that will ultimately dictate where it winds up. Later on in this
blog I will include the forecast track for TD 4, and the model output
and forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center, but for the
time being I will put this system on the backburner as we have some
issues closer to home in the coming days.
What is this you ask? An area of showers and thunderstorms has been
slowly getting better organized over the Caribbean Sea over the weekend
and today and a surface low has developed in the vicinity of Cancun,
MX. More potential development is possible overnight and into tomorrow
as the system moves off to the WNW about 15 mph. If it continues to
show signs of organization, the National Hurricane Center will send out
an Air Force Reconnaisance plane to investigate the system around
mid-day Tuesday. Regardless, of whether this system develops into a
tropical entity or not, it will continue its WNW trek towards the
Western Gulf of Mexico by mid week. Since this sytem is still only
marginally organized, models have just begun to initialize it. Early on
anyway, the synoptic pattern is one that should send this system
whether just a tropical wave or a named system somewhere in between
Monterey, MX and Corpus Christi, TX sometime Wednesday or Thursday.
This will put SW Louisiana on the moist NE side of the system, thus
resulting in increased low-level moisture and the generation of a
slightly higher than normal coverage of showers and thunderstorms in
the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. With a tropical system, this forecast
can certainly change one way or the other, so stay tuned, but by no
means is this an imminent threat from a serious hurricane nor a serious
rain event. I will include model data for this system, and certainly
urge everyone to keep a close eye on this system in the coming days.
The ridge that has been plaguing us with this intense heat may have an
impact on where this system winds up. I will discuss this system more
in detail tomorrow as I'll have a better feel for things should it
continue to organize and be classified as our next Tropical Depression.
It is certainly more pertinent to focus on this character at the
moment, and not on TD 4 since it is closer to home. We will by no means
forget about TD 4 (soon to be Dean), but I choose not to act like some
media outlets who will make it sound like the end of the world or the
2nd coming of Christ in the next few days. This has been the trend with
almost any blob that forms in the Atlantic basin since Katrina and
Rita. Attention will turn to TD 4 after we put the activity near Cancun
to rest.
Before, I get to the model output for the systems, I'll try to end this
rambling soon. After the increased rain chances from the suspect area
moving into the Gulf for the 2nd half of the week, we should once again
dry out and heat up for weekend. While it looks like, we'll heat up
again over the weekend, it doesn't appear like we will see triple
digits at this time since models indicate the strongest part of the
ridge will be in the vicinity of the Ozarks. 100s are certainly
possible once again this weekend, especially if we see little in the
way of rainfall from our much advertised system. Rain chances look to
be slim for the weekend, so if you have outdoor activities, they should
be fine, albeit hot. Remember all the necessary precautions from the
intense heat. Looking long range briefly into next week, it should
continue hot with a slight chance of the usual afternoon thunderstorms,
and all eyes will be on what will certainly by then be Dean. That is
all for this discussion, the forecast follows the graphics for each
system, and the forecast track and discussion for TD 4.
First, here is the model output for the tropical wave near Cancun, since it is a bit closer to home.
 
Each line on the above map represents a different model.
This is the same map for TD 4.
This is the National Hurricane Center's Advisory, Forecast Track, and Discussion on Tropical Depression 4.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST MON AUG 13 2007
...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...
AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.0 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1780 MILES...2865 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...12.0 N...35.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS
EVENING. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME
ELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS. A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.
THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND
UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 12.0N 35.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 14/1200Z 12.0N 37.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 15/0000Z 12.0N 40.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 15/1200Z 12.2N 43.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 16/0000Z 12.6N 46.4W 50 KT
72HR VT 17/0000Z 13.8N 52.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 57.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 19/0000Z 18.5N 62.5W 90 KT
Current Conditions for Lake Charles, LA as of 1:00 A.M. CST
Sky Condition: Clear & Hazy
Temp: 80° F
Dewpoint: 75° F
Humidity: 84%
Heat Index: 84° F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 29.91" S
Visibility: 8 miles
Tonight...Clear, Humid, and Hazy. Low 77. Calm wind.
Tuesday...Sunny and Hazy and continued Very Hot. High 101. Heat indices
105-110. Light NE wind.
Tuesday Night...Mostly Clear, Hazy, and Humid. Low 76. Calm wind.
Wednesday...Partly Cloudy and Hazy with a 30% chance of scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Not as Hot. High 97. Light SE wind.
7 Day Outlook
7 Day Outlook Lake Charles & Vicinity
8-14-07
Tuesday
Weather: Sunny, Hazy, & Very Hot
Precip: 0%
Low: 77 High: 101
Wind: NE 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
8-15-07
My Birthday
Wednesday
Weather: Partly Cloudy & Not as Hot w/ a chance of scattered showers &
thunderstorms
Precip: 30%
Low: 76 High: 97
Wind: SE 5-10
H.I.: 102-107
8-16-07
Thursday
Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ scattered showers & thunderstorms
Precip: 40%
Low: 76 High: 95
Wind: SE 10
H.I.: 100-105
8-17-07
Friday
Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ scattered showers & thunderstorms.
Precip: 30%
Low: 76 High: 93
Wind: South 5-10
H.I.: 100-105
8-18-07
Saturday
Weather: Partly Cloudy w/ a slight chance of scattered showers &
thunderstorms
Precip: 20%
Low: 75 High: 94
Wind: South 5-10
H.I.: 100-105
8-19-07
Sunday
Weather: Partly Cloudy & Getting hotter again. Slight chance of
scattered showers & thunderstorms
Precip: 20%
Low: 74 High: 96
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 102-107
8-20-07
Monday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy w/ a slight chance of scattered
showers & thunderstorms. Another heat wave?
Precip: 20%
Low: 75 High: 98
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
Nervous times in the Gulf over the next couple of days??? We'll see. There
will be a lot of hype about this system, but I advise you to ignore anything
you hear about these systems unless it comes from an actual meteorologist
or yours truly! It is all the speculation and hype that drives me crazy during
the season as you already know. We need to break this heat wave, so some
tropical moisture might be the best thing for us. Anyway, thanks for reading
this long post...til next time...Happy Cloud Watching and God bless!!!
-Drew-
| | |
| Wednesday, August 8, 2007
SW
Louisiana Forecast Discussion...I'm sure many songs come to mind when
you think of the heat we're experiencing right now. Hot, Hot, Hot, The
Heat is On, Heat Wave, Some Like it Hot, Walking on the Sun, Walking on
Sunshine, Summertime, Summer in the City, etc. I'm sure you might be
able to conjure up some more heat or summer songs...but anyway let's
get on to the business at hand. Of course the big question is, when
will the heat wave end? In short, not this week. This is a complete
switch from the pattern we've been in most of the summer which has
provided us with above normal rainfall and below normal temperatures
for June and July. Now, as we enter the 2nd week of August, the big
ridge that has plagued much of the eastern half of the country with
above normal temperatures and drought conditions this summer has
shifted further South and West, and has a stranglehold on the majority
of the lower 48 at this time. We have surface high pressure centered
about due South of us in the Gulf, and the upper ridge to our North in
the Ozarks. These combine to suppress most cumulus clouds that try and
build up into the usual crop of scattered afternoon thunderstorms. The
warmer air aloft caps the atmosphere. Thus, the warmer air prevents
vertical growth of most of the cumulus clouds. Normally, we have colder
air aloft, and this combined with the effects of daytime heating, and a
predominant wind off the Gulf (sea breeze) aid in the development of
the afternoon thunderstorms. When we have the effects of the sea breeze
and the afternoon thunderstorms high temperatures usually range from
the upper 80s to low 90s which is normal for early August. Under the
influence of this ridge, however, above normal temperatures are the end
result with highs ranging from the mid to upper 90s with a few
locations exceeding 100. Most models indicate the ridge will only
strengthen for the remainder of the week through the weekend. I
wouldn't be surprised to see highs exceed 100 areawide away from the
coast over the weekend. Rain chances will also remain minimal as long
as we are under the effects of the ridge, but an isolated shower or
thunderstorm can't be ruled out on any given afternoon. If you are one
to receive one of Mother Nature's natural air condirioners then
consider yourself lucky. It is rare to have a day with no rain chance
across SW Louisiana this time of year especially closer to the coast
where the highest moisture content resides. Daytime heating usaully
helps generate at least one or two thunderstorms even with a cap on the
atmosphere. The air temperature in the 95-100 range combined with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will only make matters worse. Heat indices
will approach the danger category of 105. The current heat wave has
resulted in some kind of heat advisory in over 20 states include the
northern and eastern half of Louisiana. Our area is in borderline heat
advisory conditions, but with the anticipated strengthening of the
ridge, I would expect a Heat Advisory even for our area over the
weekend. It seems prudent anyway since many people venture outdoors on
the weekends. If you work outside or have anything planned for outdoors
over the next week use extreme caution. Load up on the sunscreen, take
frequent breaks, and drink plenty of water or Gatorade. As you know the
heat index is the more important temperature when it comes to your
skin. An apparent temperature of 105 or greater can result in heat
exhaustion or heat stroke in less than a 1/2 hour if extreme caution is
not exercised. It is also a good idea to check on the elderly in your
area, and make sure your pets have extra water and a nice, shady place
to seek refuge from the intense heat.
I wish I could tell you
when it's gonna cool off, but at the moment it doesn't look likely over
the next 7 days. Perhaps, a return to the wetter pattern we've seen
this summer will occur in the 2nd half of the month. Yes, we are above
normal on rainfall here in the Lake Charles area for the year thus far,
but wet summers are not an anomaly around these parts. The summer is
historically the 2nd wet season across South Louisiana. Our 2 wettest
months of the year occur during the summer months. The majority of our
summer rainfall indeed does come from the typical afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. However, in this summer, there have been a couple of
other factors that have led to the overall wet pattern. A series of
upper level lows moving from the Desert SW across to Texas, and
becoming nearly stationary has been one factor. The position of these
upper level lows allowed for copius amonts of Gulf of Mexico moisture
to be pumped into the area. Remember the flow around a low is
counterclockwise. A low to our left or West gives us SE winds. A couple
of times the rainfall was enhanced by tropical moisture coming straight
out of the Gulf which was caught in the flow around the upper low. As
with most tropically enhanced systems convection (thunderstorms) often
organize in the overnight hours, and expand in areal coverage and
intensify during the morning hours once the effects of daytime heating
take hold.
Now, while one pattern makes us just sick of the
rain, and the other withers us away in the heat, both of these patterns
are good for one thing. They offer us protection from any organized
tropical systems. This current pattern with the ridge in place would
act to block any system from taking a Northerly turn toward the Gulf
coast since a high is stronger than a low, and tropical systems
typically follow the path of least resistance (weakness in the ridge).
This pattern would either keep a storm on a more westerly course
towards Mexico if anything at all formed in the Gulf or Caribbean.
The
wetter pattern of June and July would either pull a storm more towards
South or Central Texas closest to the upper low since they often help
to steer tropical storms. The other scenario would be for the tropical
system to stay well to our East either towards Florida or miss the US
altogether as it feels the influence of a trough. The troughs act as a
shield for us in that a SW flow aloft is created ahead of them and once
a tropical system gets caught in that flow it will not be a bother to
anyone but shipping interests over the Atlantic. A prime example of
this is last week's Tropical Storm Chantal. It formed off the East
coast of the US and as quickly as it formed into a tropical entity it
was absorbed into a trough and became extratropical.
While
we're on the topic of hurricanes and tropical storms, I'd like to make
a note. When the season began, a lot of hype was created by the
forecast of an above average season. This is typical of the media, but
its their way of making news I suppose, and politicizing the weather.
Here we are over 2 months into the season, and we've had 3 named
storms, all of which were not of significance with only one of the
storms bringing some squally weather to Florida (Barry). I fear that
this often lures many into a sense of complacency when we get to August
and reports come out about how quiet the season has been thus far.
Well, yes, that may be true, that it has been relatively quiet so far,
and that's good. However, again, this is not unusual. Many many years
have past with the first 8-10 weeks of the season being quiet, and it
ends up being an above normal season. 2004 is an example of this. 2005
was an anomaly, and that's just a season that stands alone. It was busy
from start to finish. While all is quiet in the tropics on this the 8th
day of August, I can assure you there will be several more named storms
to come this season, I don't like to talk numbers really, but let us
remember that the majority of storms occur during primetime. Primetime
runs from the 2nd half of August through early October. As mentioned a
moment ago, I don't really like to discuss numbers when it comes to how
many storms we'll see in a particular season because that is not what
is most important. The only thing that really matters is where the
systems go, and while I assure you there will be storms to come as we
get into primetime, I don't dare make any kind of forecast about a
particular storm and where its heading until it develops. There's
little skill in forecasting an accurate landfall of a system beyond 3
days as it is anyway. So, I just hope the media basn't lured everyone
into a false sense of security again due to the lack of storms thus
far. I do think that people around here know better than that,
especially after what we all endured during the 2005 season. I'll touch
on that in the coming weeks. It is hard to believe we're nearly at the
2 year anniversaries of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.
Sorry for
getting a little off topic, but I haven't posted in a while, and I felt
I had to say that since I had the thoughts inside of me. I'll wrap this
up in a minute with your forecast, but briefly delving into the days
ahead once again, it's just gonna be hot, hot, hot, and more hot. I
don't know what to say, folks, its August, this is Louisiana, what do
you expect? Those of you that wished for drier weather, I hope you're
happy, cuz you got your wish. I'd prefer the wetter pattern, because at
least then it wouldn't be so bloody hot. Bring on the fall! On a bit of
a historical note, the last 100 degree days here in Lake Charles came
in the days preceding Hurricane Rita in 2005. We had 4 days in a row
100+ heat from September 19th to 22nd. The oddity in that is that those
were the hottest days of the entire summer of 2005. In closing, this
discussion might conjure up another question from some of you. When
will we see a cold front? Climatologically, we wont see one til the
middle to end of September, but perhaps we'll have a teaser or two
before then. So, on to the forecast I go.
Current Conditions for Lake Charles, LA as of 12:00 A.M. CST
Sky Condition: Clear
Temp: 79° F
Dewpoint: 73° F
Humidity: 82%
Heat Index: 83° F
Wind: SW at 3 mph
Pressure: 29.96" S
Visibility: 8 miles
Tonight...Clear and Humid. Low 75. Light SW wind.
Thursday...Mostly
Sunny to Partly Cloudy and Very Hot with only an isolated shower or
thunderstorm possible. High 97. SW wind 5-10 mph.
Thursday Night...Mostly Clear and Humid. Low 76. Light SW wind.
Friday...Mostly
Sunny to Partly Cloudy and continued Very Hot with an isolated shower
or thunderstorm or two. High 98. SW Wind 5-10 mph.
7 Day Outlook
7 Day Outlook Lake Charles & Vicinity
8-9-07
Thursdday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Very Hot. An isolated shower or thunderstorm?
Precip: 10%
Low: 75 High: 97
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 101-106
8-10-07
Friday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Very Hot. An Isolated shower or thunderstorm or two?
Precip: 10%
Low: 76 High: 98
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 102-107
8-11-07
Saturday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Very Hot. Near Triple Digit Heat. Can't rule out an Isolated shower or thunderstorm
Precip: 10%
Low: 76 High: 100
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
8-12-07
Sunday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy as the Heat Wave continues. Once again can't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm.
Precip: 10%
Low: 74 High: 101
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.:107-112
8-13-07
Monday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & still Very Hot. An Isolated shower or thunderstorm??
Precip: 10%
Low: 73 High: 99
Wind: SW 5-10
H.I.: 105-110
8-14-07
Tuesday
Weather: Mostly Sunny to Partly Cloudy & Still Too Damn Hot. A slightly better chance of a shower or thunderstorm
Precip: 20%
Low: 74 High: 98
Wind: SSW 5-10
H.I.: 104-109
8-15-07
My Birthday
Wednesday
Weather: Partly Cloudy & Hot. Slight chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm
Precip: 20%
Low: 75 High: 97
Wind: S 5-10
H.I.: 103-108
Back
in April I used the phrase Absolutely Awesome April Weather! Boy that
looks good right now. Living here all my life I'm used to the heat in
August, but I am ready for the Absolutely Awful August Air to go away!
Find a pool, stay in the A/C, drink lemonade, whatever you gotta do to
keep cool. Certainly our hottest stretch of weather since September of
2005, but still not as bad as that brutal week in 2000 when we
established our all-time record high of 107 on August 31. Next update
Thursday night! Thanks for reading, Happy Cloud Watching, and God
bless!!! | | |
| Thursday, April 12, 2007!
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion...
*Major Severe Weather Outbreak setting up for Friday afternoon through early Saturday.*
Our next Spring storm system is already in transit this evening. Severe weather is beginning to break out in the Texas Panhandle with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch up for that area until midnight. This is the sign of things to come on Friday.
Satellite imagery clearly shows where our troublemaker is located. The trough is quite sharp for mid-April, and the Pacific cold front is rather strong. The upper low located over the Desert SW will also help feed energy into the system as it comes out of the Great Plains Friday. Warm air advection has already ensued across our region after another absolutely awesome April day today. Low-level moisture will continue to move inland overnight, and I expect clouds to form after midnight as dewpoints rise and winds continue from the South.
As day dawns on Friday, conditions won't be too bad. Partly Cloudy skies should prevail with mild temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. The WAA pattern will be well inland by morning, and I expect warm frontogenesis to occur tonight. The warm front will move inland and approach the I-20 corridor Friday afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate as the day progresses Friday, and I wouldn't rule out a few showers by lunch time, but the better chances will certainly come later in the day. Convective heating will be one of our main ingredients to produce severe weather.
This is a very progressive pattern, which is typical for April. The Jet Stream and best dynamics for severe weather looks like it will set up just North of the I-10 corridor. The SPC has highlighted a Moderate Risk for Severe Weather for Central and Northern Louisiana, South Arkansas, East Texas, and a part of SE Oklahoma for Friday.
The storms tonight near Amarillo, TX generated along the West Texas dryline. Cyclogenesis is expected to occur over the Red River Valley on Friday as the warm front moves Northward. The track of the surface low will be a good indicator of where the greatest threat for severe weather will be. To show you how dynamical this system is, it will have severe thunderstorms with tornadoes, high winds, and hail ahead of the dry line and associated cold front, while blizzard conditions occur on the backside of the system. Looks like the Denver area is gonna get walloped with 6-8" of April snow.
The low-level Jet ahead of the eastward advancing upper low will only help to energize the system. It will aid in the advancement of the warm air intrusion over the moderate risk area. Moderate instability will be in place by Friday afternoon over the warm sector. Instability will increase through the afternoon, and will be greatest South of the warm front. Right now, it looks like the warm front may become quasi-stationary roughly near the LA/AR border. So, if this is the case, then the greatest instabilities would be from the Dallas-Ft. Worth area Eastward towards El Dorado and Crossett, AR. The entire warm sector will be primed for severe weather, but the greatest threat area should be North of the I-10 corridor. The greatest tornado threat will be closer to the warm front, and also near the triple point.The triple point is the confluence of the dry line/cold front, warm front or quasi-stationary boundary, and the surface low. This is where most of the shear and vorticity in the atmosphere is located, as well as the fastest upper level winds.
The developing thunderstorms out West should continue to march Eastward overnight, and I expect convection to be ongoing across Central and parts of Eastern Texas after daybreak in response to the low-level Jet. Daytime heating will result in the expansion of areal coverage and intensification of the storms. This is a perfect set up for supercell thunderstorms. It is these supercells which are most likely to produce tornadoes and very large hail. I expect several Tornado and/or Severe Thunderstorm Watch boxes to be issued by the Storm Prediction Center on Friday into Saturday. They are responsible for issuing all watches, and it is the responsibility of each individual NWS office to issue warnings when they feel it is prudent. The weather will be one of the top news stories over the next few days, as this system will affect a wide portion of the country. After it is done with us, it will roll up the East coast late in the weekend into Monday in the form of a major Nor'Easter, so if you have interests up that way...be aware!
A 60-70 kt. LLJ combined with substantial directional turning in the lower levels of the atmosphere will likely result in the development of supercellular activity during the diurnal peak of heating on Friday. The greatest tornado threat will be along and just south of the warm frontal boundary, which I say, will roughly be the I-20 corridor from DFW to Monroe. A few significant, long-track tornadoes are possible in the Moderate risk area. Large hail and damaging winds will also be likely with any supercell that develops. This severe outbreak could be widespread, and quite significant across East Texas and Louisiana.
As Gulf moisture and energy from the Jet continues to interact with the advancing storm system, a transition to an MCS will occur in the overnight hours. An MCS or Meso-scale Convection System is roughly a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms that occurs ahead of a dry line/cold front. The MCS has the potential to be very large in its extent. While, the greatest tornado threat will be with the discrete supercells Friday afternoon and evening, they can't be ruled out with the MCS either. However, the greatest threat of severe weather with the nocturnal MCS will be very large hail and damaging wind. We'll have to watch closely for any bow echoes that may form within the squall line. This often indicates where wind damage will occur.
There is some question if areas South of I-10 will see as much of a chance of severe weather as those off to the North. The main reason for this is because of the capping inversion in the atmosphere. This means there is a pocket of warmer, more stable air in the upper levels. Usually, you want cold air aloft for severe weather to initiate. However, the system is strong enough, and there should be enough support from the LLJ and convective heating, that the cap will be able to bust. In other words, I believe storm generation closer to the coast will take somewhat longer to occur, but I believe it will. That said, however, I feel the greatest chance of severe weather along and South of I-10 will occur with the MCS overnight into early Saturday morning.
The cold front may catch up with the dry line, and eventually take over as the main trigger mechanism for MCS initiation. Once the MCS moves through conditions will begin to improve Saturday morning, but I can't rule out some showers and a few thunderstorms on the backside of the system as the upper low moves through. Any thunderstorms that occur in the wake of the MCS will not be severe since the air at the low-level will be more stable with the establishment of a Cold Air Advection pattern. As you know, cold air is more stable than warm air. It often results in elevated or slant-wise convection. This means that instead of having a great amount of vertical growth of a thunderstorm, it grows more horizontally. This is a common occurrence with our rainfall events here in the winter time, and as well as on the backside of these type of systems.
I expect conditions to improve after daybreak Saturday from West to East, but I believe clouds will hang tough throughout the day Saturday due to our close proximity of the upper low and trowal. CAA will intensify on Saturday thanks to strong Northerly winds and the continued cloud cover and lingering showers. Once skies clear, Saturday evening, expect the rest of the weekend to be outstanding, albeit, a tad cool.
Lows will be well down in the 40s Saturday night as high pressure settles in to relax the winds, and set us up for ideal radiational cooling with clear skies. Sunday looks outstanding...I'll use a phrase I used earlier...Absolutely Awesome April weather. Sunny skies, with super low humidity, and darn near perfect temperatures with daytime highs ranging from the mid 60s for Monroe to near 70 here in Lake Charles.
Briefly, I will discuss the extended forecast. Monday should be another nice day as the influence of high pressure is still being felt over Louisiana, but it will rapidly move off to our East. This will set the stage for a return flow to be established Monday afternoon. The next system with a similar set up, perhaps further South, will approach the area Tuesday and bring back the chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the next cold front Tuesday into Wednesday. We need to digest this system tomorrow before we deal with specifics of that system.
Even though it was almost a week ago now, it is still hard to believe we had frozen precipitation in April. That is almost unprecedented in South Louisiana for April. It is likely a once in a lifetime event for us as well, so I hope you remember the sleet and snow of Easter 2007 forever. If only it were January, we'd have been talking about snowfall of historic proportions.
I will have another update Friday morning after I analyze the latest model data. Below, I have included the SPC's Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook graphically. See the local forecast and 7 Day Outlook below.
Current Conditions for Lake Charles, LA as of 10:00 P.M. CST
Sky Condition: Clear
Temp: 58° F
Dewpoint: 55° F
Humidity: 86%
Wind: SE at 3 mph
Pressure: 29.98" F
Visibility: 8 miles
Tonight...Mostly Clear before midnight, Increasing mainly low-level cloudiness after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast wind 5-10 mph.
Friday...Partly to Mostly Cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms becoming more likely in the afternoon. Some severe thunderstorms possible with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Windy and warmer. Highs in the lower 80s. SE wind 15-20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 40%.
Friday Night...Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Severe weather possible with tornadoes, damaging wind, and large hail. Lows in the low to mid 60s. SE wind 10-15 mph becoming SW at 15-20 mph and gusty after midnight. Chance of rain 80%.
Saturday...Cloudy and Windy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the morning. Some severe weather possible very early Saturday. Rain tapering off during the day. Much cooler with highs in the upper 60s to near 70. SW wind 15-20 mph and gusty in the morning, becoming NNW at 20 mph and gusty by afternoon. Chance of rain 60%.
7 Day Outlook
7 Day Outlook Lake Charles & Vicinity
4-13-07
Friday
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ showers & T-storms becoming increasing likely throughout the day. Severe storms possible in the afternoon and evening.
Precip: 40% PM
Low: 57 High: 81
Wind: SE 15-20
H.I.: 80-85
4-14-07
Saturday
Weather: Showers & T-Storms likely early, w/ some possibly severe. Rain chances tapering off during the day. Much cooler & Windy.
Precip: 60% AM
Low: 62 High: 68
Wind: SW 15-20/NNW 20
H.I.: N/A
4-15-07
Sunday
Weather: Sunny & Pleasant. An Absolutely Awesome April day.
Precip: 0%
Low: 43 High: 71
Wind: North 5-10
H.I.:N/A
4-16-07
Monday
Weather: Sunny
Precip: 0%
Low: 41 High: 75
Wind: NE-SE 10
H.I.:None
4-17-07
Tuesday
Weather: Partly to Mostly Cloudy w/ the chance of showers & T-Storms returning in the afternoon.
Precip: 40% PM
Low: 53 High: 77
Wind: SE 10-15
H.I.: N/A
4-18-07
Wednesday
Weather: Showers & T-Storms likely in the morning. Improving conditions in the afternoon.
Precip: 60% AM
Low: 59 High: 72
Wind: NW 10-15
H.I.:None
4-19-07
Thursday
Weather: Sunny. Back to some more of that Awesome April Wx.
Precip: 0%
Low: 45 High: 70
Wind: North 5-10
H.I.: None
That's all I've got for now. Keep in touch throughout the day Friday for the latest weather developments. I strongly suggest everyone have some kind of way of being informed Friday night/Saturday morning should any watches and warning arise. NOAA Weather Radio, your local TV/Radio outlets are both good options. This has the potential to be a life-threatening, life-changing weather event for someone. There is no skill in pinpointing exactly who will get a tornado or who will get hail. The general consensus is that all types of severe weather are possible across any given location in the threat area. Next update Friday late morning! Thanks for reading and God bless! Happy Cloud Watching!
| | |
| Sunday, January 14, 2007!
*Winter Storm Potential continues to increase.*
SW Louisiana Forecast Discussion & Synopsis...The cold front continues to defy all model guidance. Yes, it has slowed, but it never stalled out. It has cleared the Houston area and as of 12:40 a.m. it was located from Monticello, AR to near Shreveport to Nacogdoches, TX to Baytown, TX. It should reach Monroe during the mid-morning hours of Sunday and Lake Charles by lunchtime. This is still some 12 to 18 hrs. ahead of what most forecasts showed. The Arctic air is so dense that even with a flow parallel to the front, it will go against the flow and eventually win out. I believe it will be Monday sometime before the front clears the entire state, but certainly will reach Lake Charles and Monroe before Monday morning. Our high temperatures for the day Sunday will occur in the morning hours in the low 70s, and then dramatically drop off into the 30s by this evening. You will certainly know it when the front passes through your area, as temps drop off a good 20 degrees right behind the front, and then will continue to fall probably through Monday. Areas of heavy rain are widespread behind the front, so expect a very wet, raw, and windy day. Some flooding is expected with 2-4" of rainfall areawide with isolated high amounts. The hounds of winter will definitely be in full force by the end of the day with wind chills in the 20s. The airmass is so shallow that we can expect overrunning behind the front for days. This is basically warm air riding up over the cold air at the surface, since cold air is denser than warm air. This cold air actually produced snow
in Las Vegas of all places on Friday. Not sure the last time they had
snow, but it is as rare out there as it is here if not more.
Our wintertime visitor, the Subtropical Jet Stream will be very active during this time, sending up ripples of energy along it to keep the rain chances in the forecast through the week. This, in combination, with a possible surface low developing in Mexico and traversing the Gulf along the front, and some pieces of upper level energy coming out of the Four Corners region will all control our weather this week. The problem is that there will be the Arctic air at the surface, and with continued cold air advection on Monday a secondary surge of colder air will arrive. Thus, temperatures should keep falling on Monday along with nearly a 100% chance of rain. Temperatures should start out in the mid to upper 30s Monday morning along the I-10 corridor and just above freezing along I-20. Precip should begin to change over to freezing rain by afternoon as temperatures fall below freezing in the Monroe area, and during the late afternoon to evening hours along the I-10 corridor from Houston to Lafayette.
The NAM model has had the best handle on the situation, and I agree with its thinking. The potential exists for a severe ice storm from Monday to at least Wednesday in an area from Houston to Jackson including Lake Charles and Monroe. The model shows total precipitation amounts just Monday night of .25-.50". That is more than enough to cause significant damage to trees and power lines, and the precip will likely continue into Tuesday to make matters worse. Significant icing on bridges and overpasses can be expected as well making travel very dangerous across the region. Due to warm ground temperatures in the 50s and 60s the freezing rain would not likely cause secondary roads to ice over. The predominant precipitation type along the I-10 corridor appears to be freezing rain, but occasional periods of sleet can be expected. Further North along I-20, I expect a good deal of freezing rain as well, but sleet may become the dominant precip type by late Monday or Tuesday morning depending on if the layer of cold air deepens as cold air advection continues. Sleet would be a better precip type, in that it will not accumulate on trees and power lines. It will make travel impossible, as all roads ice up. There is still a great deal of uncertainty how much precip will fall, and how long it will last, but I expect it to last at least into Wednesday morning, and there are some indications it could last into Thursday. Once the temperature falls below freezing Monday, I don't expect it to get above freezing again until sometime Thursday at the earliest. Somewhat of a warm up is expected at the end of the week, but it will still be cold into next weekend.
I expect at least the northern parts of the area to go under a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Watch later today, and maybe an Ice Storm Warning. This certainly has all the potential to equal or surpass our historical ice storm in 1997. Many areas were without power for 6 days back then, and you need to start preparing now for that possibility once again. One big difference this time around, at least in the Beaumont to Lake Charles area, is there isn't as many trees, but there's enough, and it won't take much ice to wreak havoc. A prime example of this is just last February in Monroe. Periods of very light freezing rain and drizzle on the 19th and 20th didn't cause any trouble for trees and power lines, but there were many accidents in the Monroe area, including a 14 car pile-up near the ULM campus. I-20 was a skating rink, and this was only from about 1/10" of ice accumulation.
It is very important that I stress that it is time to get prepared for a winter storm. We are 48 hours from this potential Ice Storm, and still several forecasters don't get it. I praise those that do, but the majority is still following along with the thinking of the National Weather Service. I feel that many people will be caught off guard, and not prepared for this event. There is still the potential that nothing will happen, but my confidence is increasing for a significant ice storm across the area this week. There's really no skill in predicting if this thing will be worse than 1997; each winter storm is a different animal. It certainly has that potential, especially if the sleet/freezing rain continue into Thursday. This is one of those events where, we may not know how bad it'll be 'til it begins. The Ice Storm of 1997 was very similar in that regard. The confidence was there that it would occur, but no one knew just how bad it would be. Another important note of interest is that all of the ice storms that have occured in the country so far this winter, have been more severe than was forecast. I think that is partially attributed to El Nino which tends to add more energy to the Jet Stream, whether it be the Polar Jet or the Subtropical Jet.
While it is not forecasted at the moment, I will continue to watch a disturbance that is forecasted to move across Louisiana on Wednesday still with the cold air in place, mind you. At that time, the atmospheric profile may be cold enough at least in North Louisiana to support snow. It is too early to tell on that, but it something to watch for among everything else. Slow modification of this airmass occurs at the end of the week, but the overrunning may continue into next weekend with another cold front due in about Saturday to keep the cold air in place. I will keep the rain chances at the end of the week small for now, and in the liquid form, but I am interested to see just how much the airmass modifies.
In summation...quite an interesting forecast for the area indeed. From a flood threat to an ice threat, you gotta love El Nino winters. Before, I get to the forecasts, again I want to stress the importance of getting prepared for this winter storm. Stock up on bottled water, non-perishable food items, firewood, battery-powered radios and TVs. Prepare your home for an extended period of below freezing weather, and your plants, pets, and pipes as well. Preparing like a hurricane is coming is a good rule of thumb, except it's not necessary to board up your windows and doors. Most importantly: check back here tomorrow for more updates. I have a big decision to make myself...should I stay or should I go? Stay home or go back to Monroe that is! Before getting to the forecast I will once again, include the Special Weather Statements issued earlier on Saturday by the NWS Shreveport and Lake Charles.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1057 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-141200-
VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-
CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-
CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-
NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEESVILLE...ALEXANDRIA...MARKSVILLE...
DERIDDER...OAKDALE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...LAKE CHARLES...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...CAMERON...
ABBEVILLE...NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY...WOODVILLE...JASPER...
NEWTON...LUMBERTON...BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...ORANGE
1057 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT
IN THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO NEAR THE LAKES AREA OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TYLER AND JASPER COUNTIES. THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE FRONT STALLS IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN START MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN LATER ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SHARPLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MERCURY COULD PLUMMET 20 TO 30 DEGREES WITHIN A 12 HOUR
PERIOD. OVERRUNNING LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER
20S ON TUESDAY MORNING, PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET COULD
RESULT NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR.
COMING OUT OF THE MARTIN LUTHER KING HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THIS COULD MAKE
FOR A RATHER CHALLENGING COMMUTE ON THE FIRST WORK AND SCHOOL DAY
OF TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GROUND TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY WARM AND THAT ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE SPOTTY AT FIRST. THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS FOR EXPOSED
OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES, POWER LINES, AND BRIDGES.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLETS AS WELL AS NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING WINTRY WEATHER SITUATION.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
338 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131200-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
338 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007
...ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE INTO THE FOUR
STATE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR
FROZEN PRECIPITATION...
SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMING TO AN END OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE REGION BEGINNING SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY
MAKING A PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE REGION LATE ON SUNDAY. AHEAD AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD TOTAL SOME THREE TO FIVE INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS.
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACH THE
FREEZING MARK...THE RAIN COULD BECOME FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM TYLER AND LONGVIEW TEXAS TO NEAR TEXARKANA
AND HOPE ARKANSAS...PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE VERY CLOSE TO
FREEZING THUS ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS COULD QUICKLY BECOME
FREEZING RAIN MAKING TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS.
AFTER A VERY COLD DAY ON MONDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS TIME...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA.
THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE ANTICIPATED
EVENT...THUS AREA RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE VERY
LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED IF AND WHEN THE ONSET OF
FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEGINS ACROSS THE REGION.
Current conditions in Lake Charles, LA as of 2:00 A.M. CST
Sky condition: Cloudy
Temp: 67° F
Dewpoint: 65° F
Humidity: 93%
Wind: SSE 17 mph gusts to 22 mph
Pressure: 30.07" F
Visibility: 7 miles
Local Forecast for Lake Charles & Vicinity 1-13-06
Tonight...Cloudy, Warm, and Windy with showers and thunderstorms becoming likely. Lows in the mid
60s. SSE winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty. Chance of rain 80%.
Sunday...Cloudy, Windy, and Turning Much Colder with widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Rainfall heavy at times. Morning high near 70, with temperatures plummeting into the upper 30s by the
evening. SSE winds 15 to 20 mph and gusty, becoming NNW at 20 to 25 mph and gusty by afternoon.
Chance of rain 100%. Rainfall totals up to 5" possible.
Sunday Night...Colder and Windy with Rain likely. Low in the mid to upper 30s. NNW winds 15 to 20
mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 10s. Chance of rain 100%.
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day...Cold and Windy with Rain likely in the morning. Rain changing to
Freezing Rain mixed with Sleet in the afternoon especially North. Temperatures in the mid 30s falling
below freezing during the afternoon. Some ice accumulations possible by late afternoon. Ice Storm
conditions possibly developing. NNW Winds 15 mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 10s. Chance of
precipitation 100%.
7 Day Outlook
7 Day Outlook for Lake Charles & Vicinity
1-14-07
Sunday
Weather: Cloudy & Unseasonably Warm in the morning. Turning much colder in the afternoon.
Widespread showers & thunderstorms w/ heavy rainfall likely.
Precip: 100%
Low: 65 High: 70 falling into the 30s by evening
Wind: SSE 15-20/NNW 20-25
W.C.: 20s P.M.
1-15-07
Monday
Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
Weather: Rain & a few Thunderstorms likely in the morning. Cold. Rain changing to Sleet and
Freezing Rain in the afternoon. Ice Storm conditions developing late.
Precip: 100%
Low: 34 High: 35 falling to 31 in the afternoon
Wind: NNW 15
W.C.: 10s
1-16-07
Tuesday
Weather: Continued Cloudy, Windy, & Very Cold w/ Freezing Rain and Sleet Likely. Ice Storm
Conditions w/ significant Ice Accumulations possible.
Precip: 80%
Low: 29 High: 32
Wind: NNW 15-20
W.C.: 5-15
1-17-07
Wednesday
Weather: Ice Storm Conditions continuing. A mix of Sleet & Freezing Rain. Significant accumulations
Possible. Very Cold & Windy.
Precip: 70%
Low: 27 High: 30
Wind: NNE 15-20
W.C.: 5-15
1-18-07
Thursday
Weather: Mostly Cloudy & Cold w/ a chance of Light Rain, Freezing Rain, & Sleet.
Precip: 40%
Low: 25 High: 38
Wind: N 15-20
W.C.: 5-15
1-19-07
Friday
Weather: Mostly Cloudy & Continued Cold w/ a chance of Light Rain.
Precip: 0%
Low: 34 High: 42
Wind: East 10
W.C.: 10-20
1-20-07
Saturday
Weather: Cloudy & Continued Cold w/ Rain Likely
Precip: 60%
Low: 38 High: 44
Wind: E 5-10/NNW 10-15
W.C.: 15-25
I tell you that's one of the coldest 7 Day Outlooks I've seen around here in a long time. Let's not focus
so much on the end of the week at this point though shall we! We've got to get through a flooding threat
& then the biggest weather problem over the next few days...the potential for Ice Storm '07. Stay tuned
as this forecast is subject to change, and likely will as the event gets closer. Hopefully tomorrow things
will become much clearer, and hopefully I can at least pin down expected accumulation amounts across
the area. Get prepared for a nasty winter storm, folks! We'll see who's right..me or the guys that are
still forecasting rain w/ 30s and 40s. That's all for now. Good night and God bless! Thanks for reading,
and happy cloud watching.
-Drew-
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